2.5u Brewers -1

 

Houser vs Brault

Off a loss where they only put up 1 run, The Brews have a cheap price vs literally the lowest expected success team in the league. With Houser up they will hold a SP edge as his 3.91 Siera shows strong upside to a guy who held a respectable 1.24 WHIP. On the other end Pitt off a win brings in Brault who’s 5.1 Siera & .263 BA leaves a large gap in talent while no one would argue that the Brews bats have the edge on offense as Pitt brings just 3 guys above league avg wRC+ to the plate. Favorites with more K’s have covered a 10% ROI over the last 10 years (11k wagers) and with 25.6 vs 19 % k rate & a much easier lineup to go through, like my chances. Value manipulating this line to a -1 and we ride.