1.5u Dodgers f5 ML
Buehler vs Valdez
One of my biggest rules in betting is simple. Don’t bet against dominant teams. Houston has too good of bats and can hurt you at any moment, I get it, it’s my rule. BUT LAD doesn’t just start any pitcher, Buehler is one of the top rated guys in my projections with a triple digit peaking fastball & gross slider to back it up. His Off back to back losses this is both a statement game vs Houston & a big momentum shot into a short season. Valdez rocked a 1.69 WHIP last season and a .263 BA & goes to the sinker as primary movement, which last season LAD was 1st in batting vs the sinker. Though I hate fading quality teams, LAD has the pitching edge, both teams bats are good but stats are inflated off bad openers. Astros f5 TT at 2.5 under is -160, I agree seeing 3 runs tough to get here. Can LAD get 2+ vs a mid tier pitcher, it’s something I’d take my 56% probability on
1.5u Braves TT over 4
Chirinos vs Wright
Note: Model is -EV on totals lifetime, but found high value in # so we ride
Chirinos came into last season throwing HEAT, putting up career numbers yet held a 4.25 Siera and 4.44 Fip. On bad batting overall, ATL has put up 5+ in 3 of 4 games this year & with wRC+ sitting at 84 as a team filled with talent including 4 of top 5 having wRC+ over 110 possitive regression is due.